Identifying key species in ecosystems with stochastic sensitivity analysis

The development of approaches to estimate the vulnerability of biological communities and ecosystems to extirpations and reductions of species is a central challenge of conservation biology. One key aim of this challenge is to develop quantitative approaches to estimate and rank interaction strengths and keystoneness of species and functional groups, i.e. to quantify the relative importance of species. Network analysis can be a powerful tool for this because certain structural aspects of ecological networks are good indicators of the mechanisms that maintain co-evolved, biotic interactions. A static view of ecological networks would lead us to focus research on highly-central species in food webs (topological key players in ecosystems). There are a variety of centrality indices, developed for several types of ecological networks (e.g. for weighted and un-weighted webs). However, truly understanding extinction and its community-wide effects requires the use of dynamic models. Deterministic dynamic models are feasible when population sizes are sufficiently large to minimize noise in the overall system. In models with small population sizes, stochasticity can be modelled explicitly. We present a stochastic simulation-based ecosystem model for identification of “dynamic key species” in situations where stochastic models are appropriate. To demonstrate this approach, we simulated ecosystem dynamics and performed sensitivity analysis using data from the Prince William Sound, Alaska ecosystem model. We then compare these results to those of purely topological analyses and deterministic dynamic (Ecosim) studies. We present the relationships between various topological and dynamic indices and discuss their biological relevance. The trophic group with the largest effect on others is nearshore demersals, the species mostly sensitive to others is halibut, and the group of both considerable effect on and sensitivity to others is juvenile herring. The most important trophic groups in our dynamical simulations appear to have intermediate trophic levels.     

Carbon-based balanced trophic structure and flows in the offshore Lake Ontario food web before (1987-1991) and after (2001-2005) invasion-induced ecosystem change

Replicate mass-balanced solutions to Ecopath models describing carbon-based trophic structures and flows were developed for the Lake Ontario offshore food web before and after invasion-induced disruption. The food webs link two pathways of energy and matter flow: the grazing chain (phytoplankton-zooplankton-fish) and the microbial loop (bacteria-protozoans) and include 19 species-groups and three detrital groups. Mass-balance was achieved by using constrained optimization techniques to randomly vary initial estimates of biomass and diet composition. After the invasion, production declined for all trophic levels and species-groups except Chinook salmon. The trophic level (TL) increased for smelt, adult sculpin, adult alewife and Chinook salmon. Changes to ecotrophic efficiencies indicate a reduction in phytoplankton grazing, increased predation pressure on Mysis, adult smelt and alewife and decreased predation pressure on protozoans. Specific resource to consumer TTE changed; increasing for protozoans (8.0-11.5%), Mysis (0.6-1.0%), and Chinook salmon (1.0-2.3%) and other salmonines (0.4-0.5%) and decreasing for zooplankton (20.2-15.1%), prey-fish (9.7-8.8%), and benthos (1.7-0.6%). Direct trophic influences of recent invasive species were low. The synchrony of the decline in PP and species-group production indicates strong bottom-up influence. Mass balance required an increase of two to threefold in lower trophic level biomass and production, confirming a previously observed paradoxical deficit in lower trophic level production. Analysis of food web changes suggest hypotheses that may apply to other similar large pelagic systems including, (1) as pelagic primary productivity declines, overgrazing of zooplankton results in an increase in protozoan production and a loss of trophic transfer efficiency, (2) habitat and food web changes increased Mysis predation on Diporeia and contributed to their recent decline, and (3) production of Chinook salmon, the primary piscivore, was uncoupled from pelagic production processes. This study demonstrates the value of food web models to better understand the impact of invasive species and to develop novel hypotheses concerning trophic influences.     

Evidence for the dominance of indirect effects in 50 trophic ecosystem networks

Indirect effects are powerful influences in ecosystems that may maintain species diversity and alter apparent relationships between species in surprising ways. Here, we applied network environ analysis to 50 empirically-based trophic ecosystem models to test the hypothesis that indirect flows dominate direct flows in ecosystem networks. Further, we used Monte Carlo based perturbations to investigate the robustness of these results to potential error in the underlying data. To explain our findings, we further investigated the importance of the microbial food web in recycling energy-matter using components of the Finn Cycling Index and analysis of environ centrality. We found that indirect flows dominate direct flows in 37/50 (74.0%) models. This increases to 31/35 (88.5%) models when we consider only models that have cycling structure and a representation of the microbial food web. The uncertainty analysis reveals that there is less error in the I/D values than the ±5% error introduced into the models, suggesting the results are robust to uncertainty. Our results show that the microbial food web mediates a substantial percentage of cycling in some systems (median = 30.2%), but its role is highly variable in these models, in agreement with the literature. Our results, combined with previous work, strongly suggest that indirect effects are dominant components of activity in ecosystems.     

Equivalence of the realized input and output oriented indirect effects metrics in Ecological Network Analysis

A new understanding of the consequences of how ecosystem elements are interconnected is emerging from the development and application of Ecological Network Analysis. The relative importance of indirect effects is central to this understanding, and the ratio of indirect flow to direct flow (I/D) is one indicator of their importance. Two methods have been proposed for calculating this indicator. The unit approach shows what would happen if each system member had a unit input or output, while the realized technique determines the ratio using the observed system inputs or outputs. When using the unit method, the input oriented and output oriented ratios can be different, potentially leading to conflicting results. However, we show that the input and output oriented I/D ratios are identical using the realized method when the system is at steady state. This work is a step in the maturation of Ecological Network Analysis that will let it be more readily testable empirically and ultimately more useful for environmental assessment and management.     

Organochlorine pollution in tropical rivers (Guadeloupe): role of ecological factors in food web bioaccumulation

Concentrations of organochlorine pesticides and stable isotope ratios of nitrogen and carbon were measured in a tropical freshwater ecosystem to evaluate the contamination level of biota and examine the bioaccumulation patterns of pollutants through the food web. Chemical analyses showed a general and heavy contamination of the entire food web. They revealed the strong accumulation of pollutants by juveniles of diadromous fishes and shrimps, as they re-enter the river. The role of ecological factors in the bioaccumulation of pesticides was evaluated. Whereas the most persistent pollutants (chlordecone and monohydro-chlordecone) were related to the organisms diet and habitat, bioaccumulation of β-HCH was only influenced by animal lipid content. The biomagnification potential of chlordecone through the food chain has been demonstrated. It highlighted the importance of trophic transfer in this compound bioaccumulation process. In contrast, bioconcentration by passive diffusion from water seemed to be the main exposure route of biota to β-HCH.     

中国温室气体排放清单信息库软件及网页的开发

中国温室气体排放清单信息库软件是基于《ＩＰＣＣ导则》１９９５年版本提供的方法设计的。与清单相关的网页将为国际互联网用户提供三项内容的服务：清单简介，中国若干年温室气体排放清单，以及排放清单信息库软件的下载。     

A Tool for Automated Load Duration Curve Creation1

Abstract: A recent study by the Texas Bacteria Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) Task Force has recommended the use of load duration curves as a primary tool in calculating bacterial TMDLs. This method is attractive because it effectively integrates flow regimes into TMDL analyses, clearly communicates data through a method that is understandable to the general public, and has been successfully applied in TMDL studies in other states. To ease the creation of load duration curves, an automated load duration curve creation tool called LDCurve has been created within a Microsoft Excel framework. Web services and a webscraper are used to retrieve U.S. Geological Survey streamflow data and Texas Commission on Environmental Quality water quality data. Data are imported to the spreadsheet, combined to create flow and load duration curves, and plotted. Final steps result in a preliminary estimate of the overall load reductions needed to meet water quality standards in the modeled segment. LDCurve is currently only applicable in the state of Texas, but may be updated to model water quality throughout the nation using analogous web services from the EPA STORET database. By using automated data retrievals and computations, the LDCurve tool reduces the amount of time required to create curves and calculate load reductions to a matter of minutes. LDCurve and all supporting materials are available online for free download at: http://tools.crwr.utexas.edu/LDCurve/ .     

A Fully Distributed Implementation of Mean Annual StreamFlow Regional Regression Equations1

Abstract: Estimates of mean annual streamflow are needed for a variety of hydrologic assessments. Away from gage locations, regional regression equations that are a function of upstream area, precipitation, and temperature are commonly used. Geographic information systems technology has facilitated their use for projects, but traditional approaches using the polygon overlay operator have been too inefficient for national scale applications. As an alternative, the Elevation Derivatives for National Applications (EDNA) database was used as a framework for a fully distributed implementation of mean annual streamflow regional regression equations. The raster “flow accumulation” operator was used to efficiently achieve spatially continuous parameterization of the equations for every 30 m grid cell of the conterminous United States (U.S.). Results were confirmed by comparing with measured flows at stations of the Hydro‐Climatic Data Network, and their applications value demonstrated in the development of a national geospatial hydropower assessment. Interactive tools at the EDNA website make possible the fast and efficient query of mean annual streamflow for any location in the conterminous U.S., providing a valuable complement to other national initiatives (StreamStats and the National Hydrography Dataset Plus).     

Biomagnification profiles of tributyltin (TBT) and triphenyltin (TPT) in Japanese coastal food webs elucidated by stable nitrogen isotope ratios

The measurement of organotins in the various biotas of coastal food webs with stable nitrogen isotope ratios (δ¹⁵N), which increase 3.4‰ per trophic level, can provide a biomagnification profile of organotins through food web. In this study, various biological samples were collected from three localities in Western Japan between 2002 and 2003 for analyses. Tributyltin (TBT) and triphenyltin (TPT) were still detected with a maximum of 99.5 and 8.7 ng wet weight g⁻¹, respectively. Unlike TBT, significant biomagnification of TPT through the food web (expressed by δ¹⁵N) was found in all three localities. The log transformed octanol–water partition coefficient (log K_ow) of TPT of 2.11–3.43 was overlapped by, but was slightly lower than, that of TBT of 3.70–4.70. Thus, this study demonstrates that although these chemicals have a log K_ow lower than 5, at least TPT undergoes significant biomagnification through the food web.     

Biomonitoring of Lead, Zinc, and Cadmium in Streams Draining Lead-Mining and Non-Mining Areas, Southeast Missouri, USA

We evaluated exposure of aquatic biota to lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), and cadmium (Cd) in streams draining a Pb-mining district in southeast Missouri. Samples of plant biomass (detritus, periphyton, and filamentous algae), invertebrates (snails, crayfish, and riffle benthos), and two taxa of fish were collected from seven sites closest to mining areas (mining sites), four sites further downstream from mining (downstream sites), and eight reference sites in fall 2001. Samples of plant biomass from mining sites had highest metal concentrations, with means 10- to 60-times greater than those for reference sites. Mean metal concentrations in over 90% of samples of plant biomass from mining sites were significantly greater than those from reference sites. Mean concentrations of Pb, Zn, and Cd in most invertebrate samples from mining sites, and mean Pb concentrations in most fish samples from mining sites, were also significantly greater than those from reference sites. Concentrations of all three metals were lower in samples from downstream sites, but several samples of plant biomass from downstream sites had metal concentrations significantly greater than those from reference sites. Analysis of supplemental samples collected in the fall of 2002, a year of above-average stream discharge, had lower Pb concentrations and higher Cd concentrations than samples collected in 2001, near the end of a multi-year drought. Concentrations of Pb measured in fish and invertebrates collected from mining sites during 2001 and 2002 were similar to those measured at nearby sites in the 1970s, during the early years of mining in the Viburnum Trend. Results of this study demonstrate that long-term Pb mining activity in southeast Missouri has resulted in significantly elevated concentrations of Pb, Cd, and Zn in biota of receiving streams, compared to biota of similar streams without direct influence of mining. Our results also demonstrate that metal exposure in the study area differed significantly among sample types, habitats, and years, and that these factors should be carefully considered in the design of biomonitoring studies.